Statistically Speaking

Statistically Speaking


In "Statistically Speaking" at
http://six.pairlist.net/pipermail/meteorite-list/2011-November/081289.html
Ruben asked:

6. Q. How much in weight does the earth gain per year 
by all the meteorites that enter our atmosphere? Including 
all, from tiny grain of sand meteorites to large bunker-
busters.

Below is what I could find with a limited search.

1. Bland (2001) states:

"This, together with the number and mass distribution 
of paired meteorites in each region allows an estimate of 
the number of meteorite falls over a given mass per year: 
between 36 and 116 falls over 10 g per 1,000,000 km2/yr. 
In addition, the total mass flux to the Earth 's surface over 
the 10 g -1 kg interval is constrained to between 2900 and 
7300 kg/yr."

and

"These and other estimates of flux for cosmic dust yield 
a reasonably consistent estimate of 30-40 Gg per year."

Halliday (2001) states:

"About 4500 events per year appear to deposit at least 
a kilogram of meteorites somewhere on Earth, including 
those that land in oceans."

3. Hughes (1991) states:

"Unfortunately the only conclusion that can be drawn 
from this review is that the meteorite flux to the Earth's 
surface is still a quantity that is imperfectly known. The
parents of meteorites have masses in the range between 
1,000 and 1,000,000,000 g. The annual flux to the top of 
the atmosphere in this range is 12,400,000,000 g and 
this is made up of 870,000 individual bodies."

There is:

Meteorite Flux - Part 1 of 6
http://www7.pair.com/arthur/meteor/archive/archive9/Dec99/msg01031.html

Meteorite Flux - Part 2 of 6
http://www7.pair.com/arthur/meteor/archive/archive9/Dec99/msg01032.html

Meteorite Flux - Part 3 of 6
http://www7.pair.com/arthur/meteor/archive/archive9/Dec99/msg01033.html

Meteorite Flux - Part 4 of 6
http://www7.pair.com/arthur/meteor/archive/archive9/Dec99/msg01034.html

Meteorite Flux - Part 5 of 6
http://www7.pair.com/arthur/meteor/archive/archive9/Dec99/msg01036.html

Meteorite Flux - Part 6 of 6
http://www7.pair.com/arthur/meteor/archive/archive9/Dec99/msg01035.html

Part 6 has the type of statistic that newspaper and TV 
reporters seemingly love to throw into an piece.

"So each 18-hole golf course has about a 1 in 100,000 
chance of being hit by a meteorite every year."

References Cited:

Bland, P. A., 2001, Quantification of Meteorite Infall Rates 
from Accumulations in Deserts, and Meteorite Accumulations 
on Mars. in B, Peucker-Ehrenbrink and B. Schmitz, eds., 
pp. 267-304. Accretion of extraterrestrial matter throughout 
Earth's history. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New 
York, New York.,

Halliday, I., 2001, The Present-day Flux of Meteorites to the 
Earth in B, Peucker-Ehrenbrink and B. Schmitz, eds., 
pp. 305-318. Accretion of extraterrestrial matter throughout 
Earth's history. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New 
York, New York.,

Hughes, D. W., 1991, Meteroite flux. Space Science Reviews.
vol. 61, pp. 275-299,

Yours,


Paul H.

Holocene Extinctions and a different lake

In “[meteorite-list] Holocene Extinctions and a different 
lake”, Ed wrote:

“I'm glad to hear that all the debate about the dating of 
the Lake Misssoula flooding has now been cleared up. 
Does the same thing hold for Lake Bonneville, and 
other Ice Age plains lakes?”

I have PDF versions of about 70 publications about
geology and paleoliminology, and chronology of Lake 
Bonneville. There are numerous other minor publications
about Lake Bonneville. In addition, I have about a couple 
of dozen papers and other publications about other Ice 
Age pluvial lakes that existed in the Southwestern United
States, including pluvial Lake Estancia in New Mexico.

In none of these papers, is there any evidence of either 
any terminal Pleistocene impacts, including about 
“10,750 BCE,” or any Holocene impacts. The significant
change from Ice Age pluvial lake levels in Lake Bonneville
and other pluvial lakes towards modern playa lakes started 
about 12,600 14C yr BP (15,000 cal yr B.P.). This is long 
before any of your proposed impacts. This is simply the 
time that the colder, wetter climates of the Last Glacial 
Maximum transitioned to the warmer, drier conditions 
of the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. This change 
is coincident with comparable drops (regression) in 
lake-level in Lake Lahontan, Lake Estancia, and other
southwestern pluvial lakes and with the onset of the
Bolling-Allerod warming event. 

There is a very slight rise in lake levels to the Lake Gilbert 
highstand in response to climate changes associated with
the Younger Dryas. There is nothing obvious in the lake
sediments to indicate any direct association with any sort 
of extraterrestrial impact. Whatever caused the Younger 
Dryas climatic changes is what indirectly caused the high 
lake levels of Lake Gilbert.

In terms of basic reading, a person can start with:

Allen, B. D., 2005, Ice Age Lakes in New Mexico. in S. G. 
Lucas, G. S. Morgan, and K. E. Zeigler, eds., pp. 107-114, 
New Mexico’s Ice Ages. Bulletin no. 28, New Mexico 
Museum of Natural History and Science.
http://geoinfo.nmt.edu/staff/allen/documents/iceagelakesnm.PDF

Balch, D. P., A. S. Cohen, D. W. Schnurrenberger, B. J. Haskell, 
B. L. V. Garces, J. W. Beck, H. Cheng, and R. L. Edwards, 2005,
Ecosystem and paleohydrological response to Quaternary 
climate change in the Bonneville Basin, Utah. Palaeogeography, 
Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. vol. 221, no. 1-2, pp. 99-122.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018205000829

Benson, L. V., D. R. Currey, R .I. Dorn, K. R. Lajoie, C. G. Oviatt, 
S. W. Robinson, G. I. Smith, and S. Stine, 1990, Chronology of 
expansion and contraction of four great Basin lake systems 
during the past 35,000 years. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, 
Palaeoecology. vol. 78, no. 3-4, pp. 241-286.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003101829090217U

Benson, L. V., S. P. Lund, J. P. Smoot, D. E. Rhode, R. J. Spencer, 
K. L. Verosub, L. A. Louderback, C. A. Johnson, R. O. Rye, and
R. M. Negrini, 2011, The rise and fall of Lake Bonneville 
between 45 and 10.5 ka. Quaternary International. vol. 235, 
no. 1-2, pp. 57-69.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618210004829

Louderback, L. A., and D. E. Rhode, 2009, 15,000 Years of 
vegetation change in the Bonneville basin: the Blue Lake 
pollen record. Quaternary Science Reviews. vol. 28, no. 3-4, 
pp. 308-326.    
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379108002680

Godsey, H. S., C. G. Oviatt, D. M. Miller, and M. A. Chan, 2011,
Stratigraphy and chronology of offshore to nearshore deposits 
associated with the Provo shoreline, Pleistocene Lake Bonneville, 
Utah. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 
vol. 310, no. 3-4,pp. 442-450.

Oviatt, C. G., D. M. Miller, J. P. McGeehin, C. Zachary, and S. 
Mahan, 2005, The Younger Dryas phase of Great Salt Lake , 
Utah. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology.
vol. 219, no. 3-4, pp. 263-284.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018211004317

Patrickson, D. S., A. R. Brunelle, and K. A. Moser, 2010, Late 
Pleistocene to early Holocene lake level and paleoclimate 
insights from Stansbury Island, Bonneville basin, Utah.
Quaternary Research. vol. 73, no. 2, pp. 237-246.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033589409001653

Spencer, R. J., M. J. Baedecker, H. P. Eugster, R. M. Forester, 
M. B. Goldhaber, B. F. Jones, K. Kelts, J. Mckenzie, D. B. 
Madsen and S. L. Rettig, 1984, Great Salt Lake, and precursors, 
Utah: The last 30,000 years. Contributions to Mineralogy 
and Petrology. vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 321-334.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/j7744044505082r0/

Maps of the pluvial lakes of the Southwest US can be found at:

1. Late Quaternary Paleohydrology of the Mojave Desert
http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/info/mojave/paleoenviron.html
http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/info/mojave/images/fig13.gif

2. Reheis, M,, 1999, Extent of Pleistocene Lakes in the 
Western Great Basin. Miscellaneous Field Studies Map 
MF-2323, U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/1999/mf-2323/mf2323.pdf
http://pubs.usgs.gov/mf/1999/mf-2323/

3. Matsubara, Y., and A. D. Howard, nd, Spatially-explicit 
modeling of modern and Pleistocene runoff and lake 
extent in the Great Basin region, western United States.
Department of Environmental Sciences, University of 
Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia.
http://erode.evsc.virginia.edu/papers/matsubara_Pleistocene_GB.pdf

One of the stranger claims that has been made about Lake 
Bonneville and other pluvial lakes in the southwest is that 
the salt and other evaporite deposits that characterize the 
modern playa lakes associated with them are the result of 
the evaporation of sea water splashed into them from the 
Pacific Ocean by multiple-kilometer-high impact generated 
megatsunamis from a terminal Pleistocene /early Holocene 
impacts as argued by Tollmann and Tollmann (1994) and 
Knight and Lomas (2000). 

Now, as in either 1994 and 2000, there exists ample data, 
interpretations, and other information in published literature
to soundly refute their arguments. The change from fresh
water, pluvial lakes towards the modern saline playa lakes 
occurred long before their proposed impacts as documented 
in the above papers. The accumulation of evaporites in these 
lakes started thousands of years before the hypothetical 
impact. In addition, the geochemistry and sedimentology 
of the salt and other evaporites found in these lakes clearly 
demonstrates that they are the result of the evaporation of
water carrying dissolved minerals from rocks exposed 
within the drainage basin of these lakes as discussed by
Hart et al. (2004), Spencer et al.  (1985a, 1985b). Also, 
despite the continuous record of lake sedimentation 
recovered in cores from Lake Bonneville and other lakes,
there is a complete lack of either an event bed of deposits
that such an event would most certainly have left behind.  
The many problems with the arguments of Tollmann and 
Tollmann (1994), which Knight and Lomas (2000) simply
ignore, are discussed in detail by Deutsch et al. (1994).

References Cited,

Deutsch, A., C. Koeberl, J. D. Blum, B. M. French, B. P. Glass, 
R. Grieve, P. Horn, E. K. Jessberger, G. Kurat, W. U. Reimold,
J. Smit, D. Stöffler, and S. R. Taylor, 1994, The impact-flood 
connection: Does it exist? Terra Nova. vol. 6, pp. 644-650.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-3121.1994.tb00532.x/abstract

Christopher Knight and Robert Lomas. 2000 Uriel's Machine: 
‘The Ancient Origins of Science. Element Books Ltd. 480 pp.

Kristan-Tollmann, E. and A. Tollmann, 1994, The youngest 
big impact on Earth deduced from geological and 
historical evidence. Terra Nova. vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 209-217.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-3121.1994.tb00656.x/abstract

Hart, W. F., J. Quade, D. B. Madsen, D. S. Kaufman, and C. G. 
Oviatt, 2004, The 87Sr/86Sr ratios of lacustrine carbonates 
and lake-level history of the Bonneville paleolake system. 
Geological Society of America Bulletin. vol. 116, no. 9-10, 
pp. 1107-1119.

Spencer, R. J., H. P. Eugster, and B. F. Jones, 1985a, Geochemistry 
of great Salt Lake, Utah II: Pleistocene-Holocene evolution. 
Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta.  vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 739-747
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0016703785901681

Spencer, R. J., H. P. Eugster, B. F. Jones, and S. L. Rettig, 1985b,
Geochemistry of Great Salt Lake, Utah I: Hydrochemistry 
since 1850. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta. vol. 49, 
no. 3, pp. 727-737
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/001670378590167X

Best wishes,

Paul H.

 The subsurface structure of oblique impact craters (Online PDF file)

Poelchau, M. H., 2010, The subsurface structure of oblique 
impact craters. unpublished dissertation, Fachbereich 
Geowissenschaften, Freien Universität Berlin, Berlin 84 pp. 

Links to PDF file at:
http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/receive/FUDISS_thesis_000000016584
http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/FUDISS_derivate_000000007281/?hosts=

PDF file downloaded from:
http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/FUDISS_derivate_000000007281/Dissertation_Poelchau.pdf?hosts=

Yours,

Paul H.

Holocene Extinctions and Missoula Flood

Holocene Extinctions and Missoula Flood

E.P. Grondine wrote:


“I see from today's news that many people are still confused 
by the extinctions caused by the Holocene Start Impacts. Its 
really pretty easy, as Elephants need 450 pounds of food a day.”


Perhaps the following will explain it better.  Good hunting, all - 
E.P. Grondine, Man and Impact in the Americas”


THE WASHINGTON SCABLANDS AND ASSINIBOINE IMPACT ACCOUNTS 


Several posters here are interested in Harlan Bretz and the 
spread of his catastrophist hypothesis for the formation of 
the Washington scablands. Currently, while all geologists
agree that the scablands were formed by catastrophic flooding, 
there is debate over whether they were caused by the 
release of one or multiple lakes and exactly when the 
flooding(s) occurred.”


The above debate, which mentioned above, is imaginary
in nature. First, the age of the latest Missouri Flood is 
well established by both radiocarbon dates and well-dated 
volcanic ash beds from Mt. St. Helens. Wood fragment from
the lower-middle part of the Missoula Flood deposits in 
Sanpoil Valley yielded a radiocarbon date of 14,490 14Cyr
B.P. A 14,000 year old volcanic “set-S” ash from Mount St. 
Helens overlies at least 28 giant-flood rhythmites and 
underlies eleven giant-flood rhythmites in southern 
Washington. Organic matter recovered from within and 
below the Missoula flood deposits in the Columbia Gorge 
yielded three dates between 15,000 and 13,700 14Cyr B.P. 
These and other dates clearly indicate that catastrophic 
flooding occurred at multiple times during a period of time 
between 15,700–13,500 14Cyr B.P. (Booth et al. 2004). 


The Missoula Flood clearly predate and are, thus, unrelated 
to any hypothetical terminal Pleistocene or Holocene impact 
event. As noted above, the Missoula Flood  deposits are 
thousands of years too old to be associated with such an 
impact. In addition, the detailed study of sedimentology of the
flood deposits demonstrates that the catastrophic flooding 
from glacial Lake Missoula occurred every few decades to 
years. This is comparable to the frequency in glacier-outburst 
floods (jokulhlaups) associated with modern Icelandic glaciers 
(Booth et al. 2004). The occurrence of multiple catastrophic 
Missoula Flood events over a period of approximately 2,000 
years definitely refutes any notion that the Missoula Flood 
is associated with a single impact event of any age. A single 
impact would only have created a single catastrophic flood. It 
would have been quite impossible for a single impact of any 
age to have created multiple flood events over a 2,000 year 
period of time as has been well documented in the published
literature.


References Cited


Booth, D. B., K. G. Troost, J. J. Clague, and R. B. Waitt, 2004, 
The Cordilleran Ice Sheet. in A. Gillespie, S. C. , Porter, and B. 
Atwater, eds., pp. 17-24, The Quaternary Period in the United 
States: International Union for Quaternary Research, Elsevier 
Press, New York.
http://faculty.washington.edu/dbooth/Ch_02_INQUA_volume.pdf
https://catalyst.uw.edu/workspace/file/download/0808b306b9967a473ab1851d477a4a35b0f79990349e2dc5d3eb3c7bfeb12668?inline=1


Also, go see:


O'Conner, J., and R. Waitt, 1994, Beyond the Channeled 
Scabland: A field trip· to look at Missoula Flood Features in 
the Columbia, Yakima and Walla Walli valleys of Washington 
and Oregon. Friends of the Pleistocene 1st Pacific Northwest 
Cell Meeting May 13-15, 1994. U.S. Geological Survey, 
Vancouver, Washington.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/24574508/Channeled-Scabland-A-field-trip%C2%B7-to-look-at-Missoula-Flood


E.P. Grondine also stated:


“Of course, as oil companies have for years been drilling cores 
off the coast of Washington, those questions could be readily 
answered, except that those cores are proprietary.”


Oil company cores will likely tell use nothing about the Missoula 
Flood as the deposits that would contain deposits from the Missoula 
Flood are too young to be of any interest to them. They would simply 
drilled through such surficial sediments any only start coring once 
they got to the oil-bearing strata. In addition, petroleum seismic is 
not designed to image shallow strata, which are of no interest to oil
companies.


However, research by marine geologists using cores and seismic data 
have identified and mapped thick turbidite deposits consisting of material 
from the Missoula Flood that was flushed down the Astoria Fan on the 
Oregon continental margin. The vast majority of this research, including 
cores,  is not proprietary. This research is discussed in a number of 
published papers, including:


Brunner, C. A., W. R. Normark, G. G. Zuffa, and F. Serra, 1999,
Deep-sea sedimentary record of the late Wisconsin 
cataclysmic floods from the Columbia River. Geology. vol. 27, 
no. 5, pp. 463-466.
http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/27/5/463


Normark, W. R., and J. A. Reid, 2003, Extensive Deposits 
on the Pacific Plate from Late Pleistocene North American 
Glacial Lake Outbursts. The Journal of Geology. vol. 111, 
no. 6, pp. 617-637.  http://www.jstor.org/stable/30081242


Zuffa, G. G., W. R. Normark, F. Serra, and C. A. Brunner, 2000,
The Journal of Geology. vol. 108, no. 3, pp. 253-274.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/30079990


This research also demonstrates that the Missoula Floods are far too 
old to be associated with any hypothetical terminal Pleistocene or 
Holocene impact.


Yours,


Paul H.